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Financial Modelling in PPP/PFI
3 March - 4 March 2003
Financial Modelling in PPP/PFI
This conference assesses the best way to anticipate the true cost of a PFI or government contract and ensure that it proves to be value for money. It will consider how you evaluate and compare the often-differing solutions offered by potential suppliers under the PFI mechanism and other government contracts.

The event should look at structured financial modelling approaches can play in addressing the potential problems of government projects. Financial modelling provides a unified framework for cost benefit analysis that is dynamic and acceptable.

This dynamic and adaptability is advantageous in a number of ways:
Decision support for each phase of the project
Greater understanding of supplier strategies
Consistent reference point for assessment against the original business case

Financial modelling as a concept can help keep public sector managers in control through out the PFI process and can effectively satisfy decision support and trail audit requirements.

A unique opportunity to learn from leading industry experts including:
Jeremy Skinner, Public Sector Delivery Analysis Team, HM Treasury
David Finlay, Head of PFI Development, National Audit Office
David Locke, Executive, 4ps
Duane Passman, Project Director, Barking Havering and Redbridge Hospitals NHS Trust
Mike Walsh, PFI & Forward Planning Manager, London Borough of Richmond upon Thames
Paul McCormick, Education Officer – PFI & Premises Manager, Sheffield City Council
Paul Bartlett, PFI Director, Deloitte & Touche
Sarmad Qureshi, Assistant Director, Ernst & Young
Hugh Daniel, Joint Chief Executive, Operis
Steven Proctor, Assistant General Manager, Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corporation (SMBC)
Andrew O’Keeffe, Senior Solicitor, Simmons & Simmons

Conference agenda

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8:30

Registration and Coffee

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9:00

Project selection – the basic decision

  • Introduction – financial modelling and decision - making
  • Basic project evaluation – discounted cash flow, profitability and other criteria
  • What discount rate – how do we set an appropriate level?
  • The corporate context – Setting project measurements in a corporate context Shareholder added value EBITDA and EPS contributions
  • Exercise 1 – choosing an investment for Project Investor plc – delegates decide which projects are best for the company based on given financial metrics
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    10:00

    How much should the project borrow?

  • The advantages and disadvantages of borrowing – the impacts of adding limited recourse debt to a PFI project
  • Analysing geared projects – calculating the weighted average cost of capital (WACC), equity returns and taxation effects
  • Evaluating debt related risks – high gearing and risky projects, evaluating the impact of default. Strategies for shareholders, lenders and customers
  • Exercise 2 – deciding how much Project Investor plc should borrow in its new project
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    11:00

    Morning Coffee

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    11:15

    Handling uncertainty and risk

  • Weighted cash flows – probabilities, weighted average cash flows and decision trees
  • Sensitivity testing and “Monte Carlo” analysis – sensitivity analysis. Interpreting results from the outputs. Interdependence of variables
  • Option analysis – an alternative way of evaluating some project risks
  • Exercise 3 – we review some risk analyses of Project Investor plc’s new project and consider the implications for project development
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    12:00

    How people really make decisions

  • Adding the human factor – why are the results of analysis sometimes ignored? Are people “irrational”? The importance of reported profits and dividends
  • Assessing probabilities – examples of decision-making based on probabilities. Errors in heuristic approaches
  • Exercise 4: delegates will take part in an exercise to consider their own attitudes to risky decisions
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    12:30

    Discussion and questions – review of the session

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    12:50

    Close of Executive Briefing

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    8:30

    Registration and Coffee

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    9:00

    Chairman's Opening Remarks

    Brian Madden

    Brian Madden, Director, Strata Business Development

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    9:10

    KEYNOTE ADDRESS

    Jeremy Skinner

    Jeremy Skinner, Public Sector Delivery Analysis Team, HM Treasury

  • The Green Book and its recent revision
  • Consequences for PFI
  • New and emerging areas to be accounted for – benefits, optimism and taxation
  • Presenting the results of financial modelling to decision - makers
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    9:40

    HOW TO MAKE BETTER USE OF THE FINANCIAL MODELS

    David Finlay

    David Finlay, Head of PFI Development, National Audit Office

  • Why is a financial model necessary?
  • The use of financial models for key decisions
  • Reviewing and testing financial models
  • Pitfalls to be avoided
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    10:20

    FINANCIAL MODELLING FOR PPP/PFI IN LOCAL AUTHORITIES

    David Locke

    David Locke, Director, 4Ps, United Kingdom

  • The key aspects involved in financing PPPs in local authorities
  • The essentials of a financial model - What does a financial model need to cover?
  • Who needs to be involved in the financial modelling?
  • Lessons to be learnt to date
  • The future for PPPs and PFI in local government
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    11:00

    Morning Coffee SPONSORED BY PFI SOLUTIONS

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    11:20

    CASE STUDY

    Paul McCormick

    Paul McCormick, Education Officer – PFI & Premises Manager, Sheffield City Council

  • Ensuring cost effective strategies for schools through PFI
  • How crucial is the financial model?
  • Sources of finance
  • Dealing with long term PFI education financing
  • Obtaining and maintaining value for money
  • Project life cycle expectations

    Looking to the future - is there a need for change?

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    12:00

    CASE STUDY: BARKING, HAVERING & REDBRIDGE HOSPITALS

    Duane Passman

    Duane Passman, Project Director, Barking Havering & Redbridge Hospitals NHS Trust

  • Scope of the project
  • Project organisation, preparation & process
  • Payment mechanisms
  • Evaluation
  • Meeting the needs of users and bidders
  • Issues faced and hurdles introduced

    Issues for the NHS – lessons to be learned

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    12:40

    Lunch

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    14:00

    PRODUCING AN EFFECTIVE FINANCIAL MODEL FOR A PUBLIC SECTOR COMPARATOR

    David Crowley

    David Crowley, Managing Director, PFI Solutions

  • Obtaining the base data
  • Ensuring the financial model reflects the output specification
  • Creating a realistic public sector comparator
  • Designing a robust financial model
  • Evaluating the completed financial model
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    14:40

    FINANCING STRUCTURES FOR PFI PROJECT

    Andrew O’Keeffe

    Andrew O’Keeffe, Senior Solicitor, Simmons & Simmons

  • Assessing project characteristics
  • Sponsors and government objectives
  • Financing structures available

    Implementing innovative structures

  • Lessons learned from PFI projects
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    15:20

    Afternoon Tea SPONSORED BY PFI SOLUTIONS

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    15:40

    MODEL DUE DILIGENCE

    Glenn Richer

    Glenn Richer, Head of Financial Modelling PPP/PFI, RSM Robson Rhodes

  • Scope of the due diligence assignments
  • Analytical tools
  • High level review
  • Review of calculations
  • Encouraging best practice
  • Limiting exposure
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    16:20

    FINANCIAL MODELS – WHAT THEY DON’T DO

    Sarmad Qureshi

    Sarmad Qureshi, Assistant Director, Ernst & Young

  • Feasibility studies
  • PSCs
  • Post contract management
  • Auditing models
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    17:00

    Chairman’s Closing Remarks and Close of Day One

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    8:30

    Re-registration and Coffee

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    9:00

    Chairman's Opening Remarks

    Paul Evans

    Paul Evans, Director, Enumera

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    9:10

    FINANCIAL MODELLING - IMPLICATIONS DURING THE PROCUREMENT PROCESS

    Hugh Daniel

    Hugh Daniel, Joint Chief Executive, Operis

  • Procurement process – the stages
  • What financial models can be used during the different financial stages?
  • Key challenges to overcome
  • Pitfalls to be avoided
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    9:40

    FINANCIAL MODELS FOR TRANSPORTATION PROJECTS

    Dr Christian Kummert

    Dr Christian Kummert, Managing Director, Special Finance, DEPFA

  • Traffic forecasts
  • Payment schedules
  • O&M costs
  • Debt service profiles
  • Coverage ratios
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    10:20

    FINANCIAL MODELLING & RELATED FINANCING ISSUES ARISING IN CENTRAL EUROPE

  • Tax and accounting issues
  • Foreign exchange financing and the model
  • Economic assumptions for EU accessions’ countries
  • Down sensitivities to reflect economic environments
  • Financing solutions and the impact on the model
  • Project and model development
  • Moira Turnbull

    Moira Turnbull, Associate, Commerzbank

    Marcus Holden

    Marcus Holden, Associate Director, Commerzbank

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    11:00

    Morning Coffee SPONSORED BY PFI SOLUTIONS

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    11:20

    RISK MANAGEMENT FOR FINANCIAL MODELLING

    Mike Walker

    Mike Walker, Executive Director & Head of Risk Management, Currie & Brown Consulting

  • Setting standards for risk management
  • Identifying risk in long term PFI projects
  • Understanding & incorporating risk within financial models
  • The risks and limitations of financial modelling
  • Options analysis – getting the best value by modelling
  • The benefits of risk assessment models for both project and contract management
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    12:00

    PROVIDING FOR TAX IN THE FINANCIAL MODEL

    Paul Bartlett

    Paul Bartlett, PFI Director, Deloitte & Touche

  • The traditional approach to tax
  • The “contract debtor” approach
  • The latest Inland Revenue views
  • Managing tax risk in the financial model
  • Sharing the benefits of the contract debtor approach
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    12:40

    Lunch

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    14:00

    FINANCIAL BEAR TRAPS IN PFI CONTRACTS

    Edward Yescombe

    Edward Yescombe, Director, Yescombe Consulting

  • Key financial concepts used in PFI contracts
  • Common errors made in incorporating financial provisions in PFI contracts
  • The relationship between the financial model and the PFI contract
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    14:40

    PRINCIPLES OF REFINANCING

    Steven Proctor

    Steven Proctor, Assistant General Manager, Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corporation (SMBC)

  • The role of refinancing
  • How opportunities for refinancing arise
  • New approach in PFI project refinance
  • How should risk be priced?
  • Guidelines for refinancing gain share
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    15:20

    Afternoon tea SPONSORED BY PFI SOLUTIONS

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    15:40

    STAKEHOLDER GOALS IN PPP/PFI PARTNERSHIPS

    Mike Walsh

    Mike Walsh, PFI & Forward Planning Manager, London Borough of Richmond Upon Thames

  • Winning over the stakeholder base
  • Stakeholders and evaluation
  • Tailoring the output specification
  • Performance and payment
  • The importance of producing sound financial models
  • Negotiating better outcomes on PFI projects
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    16:20

    LEGAL IMPLICATIONS OF FINANCIAL MODELLING

    David Kilduff

    David Kilduff, Head of Public Sector & Private Finance Group, Walker Morris

  • Status of the financial model
  • The role the financial model plays in supporting the project
  • Using the model in transactions negotiations
  • Model adaptations during the project life cycle
  • Model ownership agreements
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    17:00

    Chairman’s Closing Remarks and Close of Conference

    Workshops

    Project Decision - Making & Financial Modelling

    Project Decision - Making & Financial Modelling

    Radisson Edwardian Marlborough Hotel
    5 March 2003
    London, United Kingdom

    Project Decision - Making & Financial Modelling

    Project Decision - Making & Financial Modelling

    Radisson Edwardian Marlborough Hotel
    5 March 2003
    London, United Kingdom

    Radisson Edwardian Marlborough Hotel

    9-13 Bloomsbury Street
    London WC1 3QD
    United Kingdom

    Radisson Edwardian Marlborough Hotel

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    WHAT IS CPD?

    CPD stands for Continuing Professional Development’. It is essentially a philosophy, which maintains that in order to be effective, learning should be organised and structured. The most common definition is:

    ‘A commitment to structured skills and knowledge enhancement for Personal or Professional competence’

    CPD is a common requirement of individual membership with professional bodies and Institutes. Increasingly, employers also expect their staff to undertake regular CPD activities.

    Undertaken over a period of time, CPD ensures that educational qualifications do not become obsolete, and allows for best practice and professional standards to be upheld.

    CPD can be undertaken through a variety of learning activities including instructor led training courses, seminars and conferences, e:learning modules or structured reading.

    CPD AND PROFESSIONAL INSTITUTES

    There are approximately 470 institutes in the UK across all industry sectors, with a collective membership of circa 4 million professionals, and they all expect their members to undertake CPD.

    For some institutes undertaking CPD is mandatory e.g. accountancy and law, and linked to a licence to practice, for others it’s obligatory. By ensuring that their members undertake CPD, the professional bodies seek to ensure that professional standards, legislative awareness and ethical practices are maintained.

    CPD Schemes often run over the period of a year and the institutes generally provide online tools for their members to record and reflect on their CPD activities.

    TYPICAL CPD SCHEMES AND RECORDING OF CPD (CPD points and hours)

    Professional bodies and Institutes CPD schemes are either structured as ‘Input’ or ‘Output’ based.

    ‘Input’ based schemes list a precise number of CPD hours that individuals must achieve within a given time period. These schemes can also use different ‘currencies’ such as points, merits, units or credits, where an individual must accumulate the number required. These currencies are usually based on time i.e. 1 CPD point = 1 hour of learning.

    ‘Output’ based schemes are learner centred. They require individuals to set learning goals that align to professional competencies, or personal development objectives. These schemes also list different ways to achieve the learning goals e.g. training courses, seminars or e:learning, which enables an individual to complete their CPD through their preferred mode of learning.

    The majority of Input and Output based schemes actively encourage individuals to seek appropriate CPD activities independently.

    As a formal provider of CPD certified activities, SAE Media Group can provide an indication of the learning benefit gained and the typical completion. However, it is ultimately the responsibility of the delegate to evaluate their learning, and record it correctly in line with their professional body’s or employers requirements.

    GLOBAL CPD

    Increasingly, international and emerging markets are ‘professionalising’ their workforces and looking to the UK to benchmark educational standards. The undertaking of CPD is now increasingly expected of any individual employed within today’s global marketplace.

    CPD Certificates

    We can provide a certificate for all our accredited events. To request a CPD certificate for a conference , workshop, master classes you have attended please email events@saemediagroup.com

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